I decided to write this article end last year after three senior FMCG executives from three different companies shared with me a very comparable story. I was struck how similar those stories were. The final trigger for this article was the release of the last year financial results in February/March.
The story is as follows:
‘We have been managing aggressively for profit for the last few years:
That is ‘shrinking-to-glory’. Does this sound familiar? Well, it should. Many FMCG companies are displaying most or some of the above patterns
That is ‘shrinking-to-glory’. Does this sound familiar? Well, it should for some of you. Many FMCG companies are displaying most or some of the above patterns:
Reasons are well-known: overall FMCG market growth deceleration (from 5% CAGR over 2000-2010 to 3% CAGR over 2010-2015 at constant FX rate, and even -1% CAGR at real FX rate), retail deflation and increasing competition (retailers price war, promotional war to protect shares, rise of private labels and discounters, increasing competition from new entrants like direct-to-consumer pure players, and agile local competitors in developing markets), growth deceleration and retail deflation in developing markets, ease for consumers to compare prices across channels…
Worse, commodities price increase (dairy, cocoa to name few) and inflationist pressure in key markets (Brexit) are adding pressure to FMCG companies.
In this context, it is not surprising to see the new CEO – Ulf Mark Schneider – of the largest FMCG company in the world – Nestle – announcing lower growth estimate over the mid-term after quarters of missed top-line targets.
FMCG executives ask all the same questions:
The reality is that we have never lived in so exciting times in the FMCG industry with so abundant strategic options and opportunities. As FMCG leaders, we need to go beyond the general perception of Scarcity. We need to see those opportunities with new eyes. We need to manage finally for Growth. This is our exciting challenge
The reality is that we have never lived in so exciting times in the FMCG industry with so abundant strategic options and opportunities. As FMCG leaders, we need to go beyond the general perception of Scarcity. We need to see those opportunities with new eyes. We need to manage finally for Growth. This is our exciting challenge. Here is why and how:
Most FMCG companies are just too familiar with the above cycle and its impact. If over the short-term the results look great on paper, over the mid-term the effects are disastrous. Here are few reasons:
It is a deadly spiral.
‘Economic progress in capitalist society means turmoil. Destruction after all is a form of creation’ J.A. Schumpeter
At the end of the day, there is nothing wrong with ‘shrinking-to-glory’ as long as Earning Per Share (EPS) grows and dividends/shares buy backs are steady, happy days. P&G for example returned to shareholders $120bn in the last 10 years and announced last week it plans to return a whopping $22bn in 2017 (for perspective, P&G yearly cash flow at end June 2016 was $12bn). Which is an excellent news for the activist investor Nelson Peltz that bought mid February a $3bn stake in P&G (1.3% stake) (cf. How Peltz Can Turn P&G’s Tide?).
Businesses that have been ‘shrinking-to-glory’ could be literally few steps away from ‘shrinking-to-misery’….. Compounding volume loss and price decrease and other things being equal, it is no more, no less than at least half of the profit of Gillette North America that has been wiped out in 5 years time
The challenge is that in the digital disruption age, product life-cycle shortens and cash-flows are getting less predictable. Businesses that have been ‘shrinking-to-glory’ could be literally few steps away from ‘shrinking-to-misery’. The situation of Gillette in North America is a good example. It used to be a structurally healthy business with high market shares (70%+), high profitability (25%+ EBIT) enjoying a single-digit growth mostly fueled by pricing/mix (trade-up model) but with the arrival of direct-to-consumer pure players (Dollar Shave Club, Harry’s, 800razors.com, Bevel…), Gillette lost significant shares (from 71% to 59% value shares between 2012 and 2016) and they now just announced their intention to reduce by up to 20% their prices to remain competitive with those new entrants (Procter & Gamble Is Shaving the Price of Its Gillette Razors). Compounding volume loss and price decrease, other things being equal, it is no more, no less than at least half of the profit of Gillette North America that has been wiped out in 5 years time
One of the lesson to draw from the Kraft-Heinz/Unilever saga is that neither being a growth champion (Unilever) nor being a bottom-line champion (Kraft-Heinz) is good enough anymore. Shareholders are pushing for both and they want it now. Unilever recent communications around ‘efforts to create also short-term value’ (cost reduction initiatives, potential food business unit spin-off) and the diligence at which Kraft-Heinz is looking for ‘Growth-driver’ acquisition are both testimony of this new normal.
Companies like Unilever will have to become more entrepreneurial […] Companies like Kraft-Heinz will have to convince the world that they can offer much more than cost-cutting and ZBB to create sustainable shareholder value
The good news is there are companies that have been consistently excelling at both like RB and that provides plenty of opportunities to learn from (cf. FMCG CEOs: Breaking the code of RB success in 5 genes or How it succeeded to outperform consistently P&G, Unilever and more over the last 15 years).
Obviously, cheap and hyper-abundant capital helps but there is a bit more than this that explains the acceleration in M&A activity and the greater size of the deals in the FMCG industry over the last 24 months (Ab-Inbev/SAB-Miller, P&G Beauty/Coty and all the other companies acquired by Coty since then, RB/Mead Johnson, failed bid from Kraft-Heinz on Unilever, Danone/Whitewave, Unilever/Dollar Shave Club, Henkel/Sun, PepsiCo/KeVita and many others).
In this time of acceleration and transition, FMCG companies will only accelerate their M&A activity
In this time of acceleration and transition, FMCG companies will only accelerate their M&A activity to:
And it is only the beginning.
One of the consequence of the digital disruption age is that the competitive advantages on which the FMCG industry has been built over the last decades are becoming increasing less unique and obsolete (cf. FMCG CEOs: 6 Reasons why your company’s competitive advantages are becoming increasingly obsolete ). As a result, the FMCG industry needs a brand new Playbook to survive in the linear Old World and leverage the potential of the exponential New World.
In this emerging New World, owning the direct consumer relationship and consumer data will become the ultimate competitive advantage (cf. From linear to exponential – the exponential transformation or how FMCG companies can build sustainable competitive advantages in the digital disruption age)
Innovation has always been the lifeblood of the FMCG industry and it will remain. But investing 90% of the organization resources into launching incremental SKUs is not working anymore. We have well passed the point of diminishing returns on incremental SKUs launches/lines extension. FMCG companies need to shift drastically resources to explore new business models. Younique for example (cf. ‘FMCG CEOs: 7 reasons why Coty acquired Younique or why the race is on to become an exponential organization) succeeded to build a profitable $400mn sales peer-to-peer direct-to-consumer beauty company in just 4 years while Avon a direct competitor in the same time lost 1/3 of its revenue (-$3bn) as it was hesitating to transform its business model.
Investing 90% of the organization resources into launching incremental SKUs is not working anymore. We have well passed the point of diminishing returns on incremental SKUs launches/lines extension
‘One does not discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time’ – Andre Gide
This is the biggest strategic shift FMCG leaders need to operate as of now: Assemble an omni-channel consumer centric eco-system which delivers great value and that has great switching costs. The two latter points are critical to be in a position to monetize it (which is basically why Facebook enjoys a 35% EBIT and UBER still records losses quarter after quarter).
The implications are far-reaching:
Getting scale with a specific consumer group […] and developing an overall eco-system of not only products but also services, apps, connected objects will become the name of the game
To know more about Direct-to-Consumer and Consumer ecosystem and how to get started, please refer to:
As a regional CFO shared few weeks ago following the Kraft-Heinz move on Unilever: ‘If the future of the industry is all about direct consumer relationship, consumer data, asset-light models (see chart below) – what is the point to acquire a direct competitor with large physical assets? Is there a risk of having those assets impaired in 5-10 years or so down the line?’
Well, it is a good question and there are no real one size fits all answer as all deals have their own value creation case. Few points:
In that regard, the RB/Mead-Johnson acquisition is a great example. Not only it is about delivering growth now (infant nutrition/milk is a dynamic category, Mead Johnson geographic footprint is highly complementary with RB starting with China and developing markets, it opens immediate cross-selling opportunities for Nurofen, Strepsils, Gaviscon…) but it enables also RB to build a base over the mid-term for an omni-channel consumer health eco-system with a number of highly complementary brands
It will not be surprising to see more and more FMCG companies acquiring digital media agencies, e-tailers, apps makers… to build foundations for future growth
All of this consumer eco-system, future-proof M&As, Direct-to-Consumer are great for the mid/long-term but concretely how do we succeed to grow over the short-term?
All of this consumer eco-system, future-proof M&As, Direct-to-Consumer are great for the mid/long-term but concretely how do we succeed to grow over the short-term?
Without going into company specific portfolio opportunities, the good news is there are abundant short-term (<12-18 months) opportunities and growth levers that are currently insufficiently leveraged in the FMCG industry:
Most revenue management programs focus on short-term tactics and not only fail to create lasting category value but some even destroy value
i. The ‘Toblerone shrinkflation’ last November 2016 that tarnished the brand’s reputation: Chocolate lovers face more ‘shrinkflation’ to add to Toblerone outrage
ii. General Mills pricing strategy on the yogurt category in North America where it pushed for too much pricing and lost shares behind Chobani:Why Big Brands Couldn’t Stop Chobani From Winning the Yogurt War
I will share soon an article on Revenue Management as it is a topic that deserves to be developed further.
How many FMCG companies have the right sales and go-to-market ‘muscles’ at the right place to address those Growth channels (Ecommerce, discounters, convenience)?
80% of the growth on the food and drinks category in Europe and North America in 2016 came from organic/bio/local/reduced sugar/healthier products. It is surprising to hear some CEOs of Food companies admitting that only less than 25% of their SKUs launch fall in those categories. Do your companies really leverage those mega-trends?
The FMCG industry is expected to double in the next 10-15 years and to move from around $9 trillion today to around $15 trillion by 2025-30 (depending to the source you consider) which translates roughly to a 4-5% CAGR trajectory. Just to put in perspective, an additional $6 trillion is the equivalent of around 67 Nestle, 240 Mondelez and 429 RB. It is not really scarcity then. ~75% of this growth is expected to come from what we call today developing markets mostly behind demographic growth and increased penetration on existing categories.
The FMCG industry is expected to double in the next 10-15 years. To put in perspective, an additional $6 trillion is the equivalent of around 67 Nestle, 240 Mondelez and 429 RB. It is not really scarcity then.
2016 was not a great year in developing markets. Brazil has been in limbo, India grew less than expected because of demonetization, Russia is still extremely challenging, currency deflation is hitting hard most emerging markets, geopolitics issues happen on a daily basis. Beyond, developing markets failed many time in the past to deliver on their promises. Yet, developing markets should be more than ever a priority as there are the battle-field, the make-or-break of the future. And that’s exactly why all recent large acquisitions were made with a clear intent to increase drastically footprint in emerging markets (Ab-Inbev/SAB-Miller, RB/Mead-Johnson, failed bid from Kraft-Heinz on Unilever).
Yet, developing markets should be more than ever a priority as there are the battle-field, the make-or-break of the future
The challenge with developing markets has been to unlock their growth potential profitably and specifically address the famous 3As challenge (Accessibility, Affordability, Availability). Except few successful cases (like Unilever and its Shakti peer-to-peer program in rural India), rare are the FMCG companies that really cracked it at scale. The good news is that exponential technologies (m-commerce, artificial intelligence, social media, solar energy, soon 3D printing/decentralized manufacturing, zero marginal cost last-mile-delivery technologies…) might just help unlocking this potential but it will require fundamentally different business models tailored to the local needs. It will require much more than just small pack size sold to high-frequency stores.
Exponential technologies might just help unlocking this potential but it will require fundamentally different business models tailored to the local needs
We are not yet fully there as infrastructure needs to improve drastically but we are getting there. All those markets will leapfrog to the 5G mobile standard by 2018-2020).
It will not be surprising to see in the next 2-4 years disruptive business models emerging in developing markets seizing even faster market shares than what we have been seeing in the US with the Direct-to-consumer players. It will be an exponential leapfrog
It will not be surprising to see in the next 2-4 years disruptive business models emerging in developing markets seizing even faster market shares than what we have been seeing in the US with the Direct-to-consumer players. It will be an exponential leapfrog
Let’s take for example the beauty category and its various segments (skin care, make-up, perfume…). All those segments enjoy by and large a penetration that is much lower in developing markets than in developed markets (sometimes half, sometimes 3 to 4 times lower penetration). Can you imagine the power of applying a digital peer-to-peer direct-to-consumer business model (basically having hundreds of thousands of women selling your products online as independent presenters through the social networks) like Younique but in markets like India or China?
Can you imagine the power of applying a digital peer-to-peer direct-to-consumer business model like Younique on Beauty Care but in markets like India or China?
The digital disruption age and exponential technologies (e-commerce, social media, artificial intelligence, connected objects, blockchain, 3D printing, zero marginal cost last mile delivery technologies…) are bringing an abundance of strategic options for leaders that can see them. Just few options:
FMCG companies with a large impulse categories portfolio could be interested by a very focused retailer like GoPuff for example that delivers only impulse products (snacks, soft drinks, ice-creams…)
An eco-system made of a platform controlled by a FMCG company connecting dairy farmers and final consumers, of a hardware to help consumers transform at home milk into various dairy products could really create value for all actors involved while leveraging all current consumer trends (local, hyper-personalization, greater revenue for milk farmers…)
Large FMCG companies like Nestle and P&G could well generate a significant portion of their revenue in 10 years from now from consumer data
Strategy is important but it is usually not the most difficult part. Execution and culture are. As summarized Salim Ismail in his book: ‘Exponential Organizations: Why new organizations are ten times better, faster, and cheaper than yours (and what to do about it)’. Exponential organizations have usually 3 things in common:
FMCG companies will have to become Exponential Organizations to win in the digital disruption age.
Strategy, culture, execution are essential. But to bring this to life, we need a new breed of talents: more entrepreneurial, talented at optimizing businesses but also great at starting new ones and scaling them up. Last month, I posted an article on the topic (see below).
The reality is that we have never lived in so exciting times in the FMCG industry with so abundant strategic options and opportunities. As FMCG leaders, we need to go beyond the general perception of Scarcity. We need to see those opportunities with new eyes. We need to manage finally for Growth. This is our exciting challenge.
As often, I will close this article with the opening quote:
‘The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes’ Marcel Proust
To follow him, please click Here
If you are interested in hearing and discussing more on the above, you can reach out at frederic@fredericfernandezassociates.com or attend one of my upcoming Senior Executive FMCG Conferences (each limited strictly to 20 attendees and exclusively reserved to senior FMCG executives on a pure first come/first serve basis – the attendance is free – upcoming topics/dates for Q1 2017 include:
Q1 2017 Topic: FMCG CEOs: Managing (finally) for growth or how to stop ‘shrinking to glory’
– Zurich, Friday, March 17th 2017 from 8 to 10 am at Hotel Grand Hyatt (few seats left)
– Geneva, Friday 24th 2017 from 8 to 10 am at Hotel Des Bergues Four Seasons (now fully booked)
Frederic Fernandez does not own any stocks or financial instruments of any FMCG companies or companies mentioned in the above article.
About the author:
Frederic Fernandez is an expert and thought leader in the FMCG industry. He is the Managing Director and Partner of Frederic Fernandez & Associates a bespoke Strategy Consulting Firm exclusively focused on the FMCG industry. His focus areas are mainly in growth and profit turnaround, corporate strategy, direct-to-consumer and business model innovation in the FMCG industry. His passion is to help FMCG leaders co-creating the future of the industry and to develop, achieve and exceed the potential of their business. He spends his time advising Fortune 500 FMCG senior leaders globally. He is based in Zurich, Switzerland. He is also a sought-after speaker and speaks across the globe at trade associations and for corporate clients (CEO strategy meeting, yearly strategic reviews, top management events) about the FMCG industry. Before joining the world of management consulting, he worked with Fortune 500 companies like Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Societe Generale in leadership positions across Europe (France, UK, Nordics, Germany, Switzerland, Austria), Central Africa and India.